In the technology industry, we often talk about “inflection points” – events that change how people behave so much they affect progress, positive or negative. Those inflection points include the advent of the Internet and mobile smart phones. The upcoming World Cup in Brazil is an inflection point for soccer in the United States.
Last week the U.S. Men’s National Team head coach showed he knows this is a crucial moment by cutting its best-known player, Landon Donovan. Coach Jürgen Klinsmann put his chances of winning ahead of popularity, and the present ahead of the past. “I have to choose the 23 best players based on what I see today,” said Klinsmann.
The debate among Donovan supporters, of course, is what defines the “best” players. Donovan is certainly one of the top 23 players in terms of skills. However, this team is designed for a run in the tropics, not the suburbs of L.A. This is a month-long tournament in grueling humidity of up to 99 percent in northwest Brazil this time of year. It starts with three games in three cities over two weeks of group play (June 12-26). The second stage – the round of 16, quarterfinals and semifinals – runs from June 28 to July 9. The championship game is July 13 in Rio De Janeiro.
Michael Bradley, the most talented and important U.S. player in Brazil, understands clearly what is needed: “For us to go into a World Cup and have a real chance at making a run, we’ve got to be the fittest team there,” he said after a 2-2 draw with Mexico in April.
When Klinsmann said other players had a slight edge over Donovan, he wasn’t talking about skill on penalty kicks. The coach clearly knows player fitness will be a differentiator in this tournament, and the stakes are far too high to compromise on that.
It’s such an important moment, I believe it’s what Intel co-founder Andy Grove once called “a strategic inflection point … an event that changes the way we think and act.” In world football, the World Cup has the weight to do that in entire countries, impacting the perception of the sport and even the nation for years by its sheer mass of worldwide interest and exposure.
Many consider the U.S. failure to get out of its group stage in 2006 to be a negative inflection point, after a young 2002 team that included Donovan and DaMarcus Beasley got to the quarterfinals. I witnessed one of the positive inflection points in the late 1970s, when Pelé came to the New York Cosmos to help kick-start the North American Soccer League. The upcoming World Cup is such a moment for soccer in America for two reasons:
It’s time to show progress or retool.
Even after cutting Donovan, this may be the most experienced, capable and competitive men’s team the U.S. has ever fielded top to bottom. The whole world knows it. Yes, they’re in a tough group in Brazil. But there are no excuses at this point. I appreciate the fact Klinsmann understands that. With veterans like Bradley, Clint Dempsey and Tim Howard along with a fit and underrated bench, failure to get out of group stage would be a setback for the domestic development program and recruitment of players with dual nationalities. Winners want to play with winners.
It could impact professional soccer in America for years.
Grove also talked about inflection points in industries – say, Major League Soccer, the top American/Canadian professional league. With 10 MLS players on the 23-man team, the reputation of the league will be impacted by their performance in Brazil. Players like Dempsey and Bradley have made recent high-profile moves to MLS from top European leagues. They could gain significant credibility for MLS if the U.S. men’s team could get to the second stage. Failure to get out of group stage would be a PR disaster for MLS, validating its reputation of being a nice place to retire – and significantly affecting its negotiating position in contracts.
As far as inflection points, it’s not the fall of the Berlin Wall or landing on the moon. It’s not even as far-reaching as the invention of the curling iron. But this is a turning point for the worldwide reputation of U.S. soccer on several levels, and everybody knows it.
Like all good inflection points, this will be driven by one key event. The good news: About six weeks from now we’ll have clear winners and losers. There are no ties in this game. Klinsmann gets that, and I’m grateful.
In the end, the progress of soccer in America over the next four years will rise or fall on the won-loss record of one team in one tournament. Oh, and it’s against the world’s best players in withering conditions. Such is the way of competitive sport. At this level, you have to earn respect every day. Just ask Donovan.
byStanley is written by Stan Johnston. He started his career as an award-winning newspaper writer and editor. Currently he is on the global marketing team of NetApp, a Fortune 500 technology company based in the Silicon Valley.
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